An assesment of property performance forecasts: consensus versus econometric
Language: English Series: Journal of Property Investment and Finance ; 24(5) 2006, 386-399(14)Publication details: 2006Subject(s): Summary: An examination of the accuracy of various types of property forecasts, focusing on an evaluation of the IPF Consensus Forecast Survey. The evaluation of such forecasts is discussed in general terms, and the IPF forecasts are then compared with forecasts based on econometric models (real time forecasts). The author concludes that for rents, over a one year forecast horizon, the IPF consensus forecasts outperform the other models examined. However, for total return forecasts and where the forecast horizon lengthens to two years, regression models and a combination of the statistical models are more accurate than the consensus forecast.| Item type | Current library | Call number | Copy number | Status | Barcode | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Journal article | London Journal article | L134635 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | 1 | Available | 134635-1001 |
An examination of the accuracy of various types of property forecasts, focusing on an evaluation of the IPF Consensus Forecast Survey. The evaluation of such forecasts is discussed in general terms, and the IPF forecasts are then compared with forecasts based on econometric models (real time forecasts). The author concludes that for rents, over a one year forecast horizon, the IPF consensus forecasts outperform the other models examined. However, for total return forecasts and where the forecast horizon lengthens to two years, regression models and a combination of the statistical models are more accurate than the consensus forecast.