Agreement and accuracy in consensus forecasts of the UK commercial property market
McAllister, Patrick
Agreement and accuracy in consensus forecasts of the UK commercial property market - 2008 - Journal of Property Research 25(1) March 2008, 1-22(22) .
Investigates the nature, extent and patterns of disagreement and uncertainty in the forecasts of UK property investors and their advisers. Analyses the Investment Property Forum's consensus forecasts from 1999-2004. Finds that property forecasting organisations tend to exhibit the characteristics of a consensus, potentially indicating a herding bias, and that difficulties forecasting yield shifts area key source of uncertainty. Suggests that there are inefficiencies in property market forecasts.
United Kingdom--
Agreement and accuracy in consensus forecasts of the UK commercial property market - 2008 - Journal of Property Research 25(1) March 2008, 1-22(22) .
Investigates the nature, extent and patterns of disagreement and uncertainty in the forecasts of UK property investors and their advisers. Analyses the Investment Property Forum's consensus forecasts from 1999-2004. Finds that property forecasting organisations tend to exhibit the characteristics of a consensus, potentially indicating a herding bias, and that difficulties forecasting yield shifts area key source of uncertainty. Suggests that there are inefficiencies in property market forecasts.
United Kingdom--