Risk attitude and systematic bias in estimating and forecasting (Record no. 40017)

MARC details
000 -LEADER
fixed length control field 01609cab a2200241 4500
001 - CONTROL NUMBER
control field X179
008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION
fixed length control field 090401t1992 xxu||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
035 ## - SYSTEM CONTROL NUMBER
System control number (Sirsi) u64269
041 ## - LANGUAGE CODE
Language code of text/sound track or separate title eng
100 ## - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Mak, S.
245 ## - TITLE STATEMENT
Title Risk attitude and systematic bias in estimating and forecasting
260 ## - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC.
Date of publication, distribution, etc. 1992
350 ## - PRICE (NR) (BK AM CF MU VM SE) [OBSOLETE]
Price 0
490 ## - SERIES STATEMENT
Series statement Construction Management & Economics
Volume/sequential designation (10) 1992, 303-320(18)
520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC.
Summary, etc. Describes findings from the first phase of a research project investigating the modelling of risk and uncertainty in construction estimating and forecasting. The objectives of the project are to examine current methods and, experimentally, to explore techniques which offer the potential for producing improved information from estimates and forecasts. Some causes of error and bias in both traditional deterministic and in probabilistic estimating and forecasting are described. The majority of the research in cognitive psychology which has led to the common assumption of errors and biases has been carried out with lay people thinking intuitively about problems. The present research is an attempt to test these biases in a domain-specific, non-intuitive context with individuals trained in that domain. The author hypothesize that, if professional training has any value then they should find less evidence of bias than is the case in the general literature. Empirical results are reported and
650 ## - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name entry element ESTIMATING
650 ## - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name entry element FORECASTING
650 ## - SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM
Topical term or geographic name entry element RISK ANALYSIS
690 ## - LOCAL SUBJECT ADDED ENTRY--TOPICAL TERM (OCLC, RLIN)
Topical term or geographic name as entry element Project management
9 (RLIN) 6261
700 ## - ADDED ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME
Personal name Raftery, J.
942 ## - ADDED ENTRY ELEMENTS (KOHA)
Suppress in OPAC 0
948 ## - LOCAL PROCESSING INFORMATION (OCLC); SERIES PART DESIGNATOR (RLIN)
c (OCLC) 04/03/1997
Holdings
Withdrawn status Lost status Source of classification or shelving scheme Damaged status Not for loan Home library Current library Shelving location Date acquired Total Checkouts Full call number Barcode Date last seen Copy number Price effective from Koha item type
    Dewey Decimal Classification     London London Journal article 14/09/1999   X179 64269-1001 06/08/2019 1 06/08/2019 Journal article