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Judgement and qualitative adjustment in commercial property forecasting

By: Contributor(s): Language: English Series: RICS Research Paper Series ; 5(11)Publication details: London RICS 2005ISBN:
  • 1842192434
Subject(s): LOC classification:
  • 333.337 $2 18
Summary: Notes that property market forecasts are now integral to the decision-making processes in commercial property investment. As a result modelling has become increasingly sophisticated, but the qualitative judgement of forecasters is an essential part of the process as forecasters use their judgement to make adjustments to the modelling results. Final forecasts are rarely simply the outputs of the models used but are mediated and contested within organisations. Critically, forecasts need to be acceptable to their users and forecasters have incentives to avoid presenting contentious or conspicuous forecasts. There is clear evidence of this tendency, with forecasts being adjusted to reduce this kind of risk.
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ONLINE PUBLICATION Judgement and qualitative adjustment in commercial property forecasting

Notes that property market forecasts are now integral to the decision-making processes in commercial property investment. As a result modelling has become increasingly sophisticated, but the qualitative judgement of forecasters is an essential part of the process as forecasters use their judgement to make adjustments to the modelling results. Final forecasts are rarely simply the outputs of the models used but are mediated and contested within organisations. Critically, forecasts need to be acceptable to their users and forecasters have incentives to avoid presenting contentious or conspicuous forecasts. There is clear evidence of this tendency, with forecasts being adjusted to reduce this kind of risk.