In many situations it is necessary to attempt to predict the state of repair of a housing stock from limited data. To do this we need a model of the relationship between state of repair, work done and time. The problem that I will address in this paper is; given the mean disrepair of a stock at time t 0 , what state can we expect the stock to be in at some later time t 1 , given that we know something about the level of repair and maintenance work undertaken in the interval. The model I have developed needs real data to be of any practical use. The data I use to calibrate the model comes from the 1981,1986, and 1991 English House Condition Surveys and applies to the English housing stock as a whole. This paper is based on research conducted for the Department of the Environment.

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