000 01400cam a2200229 4500
001 ##L130871
008 050909n2005 000 0 eng u
020 _a1842192434
035 _a(Sirsi) u130871
041 0 _aeng
050 0 4 _a333.337 $2 18
100 1 _aGallimore, Paul
245 0 0 _aJudgement and qualitative adjustment in commercial property forecasting
260 _aLondon
_bRICS
_c2005
490 0 0 _aRICS Research Paper Series
_v5(11)
520 _aNotes that property market forecasts are now integral to the decision-making processes in commercial property investment. As a result modelling has become increasingly sophisticated, but the qualitative judgement of forecasters is an essential part of the process as forecasters use their judgement to make adjustments to the modelling results. Final forecasts are rarely simply the outputs of the models used but are mediated and contested within organisations. Critically, forecasts need to be acceptable to their users and forecasters have incentives to avoid presenting contentious or conspicuous forecasts. There is clear evidence of this tendency, with forecasts being adjusted to reduce this kind of risk.
590 _aIKA061205
690 _aPROPERTY-COMMERCIAL PROPERTY-COMMERCIAL PROPERTY MARKET
700 1 _aMcAllister, Patrick
710 2 _aRoyal Institution of Chartered Surveyors
_bResearch
_94902
942 _n0
999 _c104589
_d104589