000			01467cam a2200169 4500
001			##L131990
008			051220n2002 000 0 eng u
035			_a(Sirsi) u131990
041	0		_aeng
100	1		_aLeece, David
245	0	4	_aThe behaviour in expectations and the expectations in behaviour: a fresh look at the results of interest rate expectations surveys
260			_aLondon _bRICS _c2002
520			_aThe paper evaluates the usefulness of behavioural perspectives adopted in finance for understanding the basis on which a significant group of consumers form their expectations of qualitative changes in interest rates. Economists and financial analysts mostly neglect the "same" or "no change" category in consumer surveys, yet as a group it exhibits interesting systematic behaviour. A behaviour based model of the formation of interest rate expectations is developed and tested. The application of non-parametric statistical analysis (Loess) reveals that many consumers make inefficient forecasts of interest rate changes. However, there is a case for adopting complementary rational forecasting and behavioural approaches to understanding expectations formation. There are important implications for real estate finance and housing and mortgage demand, including a possible explanation of perverse mortgage prepayment behaviour.
520			_aThis item is no longer available.
690			_aPROPERTY-PROPERTY FINANCE AND INVESTMENT
942			_n0
999			_c104949 _d104949