000			01609cab a2200241 4500
001			X179
008			090401t1992 xxu||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
035			_a(Sirsi) u64269
041			_aeng
100			_aMak, S.
245			_aRisk attitude and systematic bias in estimating and forecasting
260			_c1992
350			_a0
490			_aConstruction Management & Economics _v(10) 1992, 303-320(18)
520			_aDescribes findings from the first phase of a research project investigating the modelling of risk and uncertainty in construction estimating and forecasting. The objectives of the project are to examine current methods and, experimentally, to explore techniques which offer the potential for producing improved information from estimates and forecasts. Some causes of error and bias in both traditional deterministic and in probabilistic estimating and forecasting are described. The majority of the research in cognitive psychology which has led to the common assumption of errors and biases has been carried out with lay people thinking intuitively about problems. The present research is an attempt to test these biases in a domain-specific, non-intuitive context with individuals trained in that domain. The author hypothesize that, if professional training has any value then they should find less evidence of bias than is the case in the general literature. Empirical results are reported and
650			_aESTIMATING
650			_aFORECASTING
650			_aRISK ANALYSIS
690			_aProject management _96261
700			_aRaftery, J.
942			_n0
948			_c04/03/1997
999			_c40017 _d40017