000			01133cam a2200205 4500
001			WB3934-08
008			030911n2003 000 0 eng u
035			_a(Sirsi) u123553
245			_aITEM Club: economic update
260			_c2003
490			_aITEM Club economic update _v8 September 2003, (5)
520			_aErnst and Young's ITEM Club looks at deflation. Using the HM Treasury model to analyse the implications of a GDP growth at 0.8% over the next few years. The results indicate that house prices could fall by 10% next year and by 15% in 2005 and 2006, this would mean an explosion in households with negative equity. ITEM Club attaches very low probability to such a scenario. For the news release: http://www.ey.com/global/Content.nsf/UK/Media_-_03_09_08_DC_deflation_a_real_risk. For the Item Club economic update: http://www.ey.com/global/download.nsf/UK/Economic_Outlook_for_Business_-_update_09_03/$file/Economic_Update_September_2003.pdf
590			_aWB
650			_aECONOMICS
650			_aDEFLATION
650			_aNEGATIVE EQUITY
650			_aHOUSE PRICES
690			_aECONOMIC ISSUES
942			_n0
999			_c73385 _d73385