000 01250cab a2200193 4500
001 ##L134635
008 060821n2006 000 0 eng u
035 _a(Sirsi) u134635
041 0 _aeng
100 1 _aTsolacos, Sotiris
245 0 3 _aAn assesment of property performance forecasts: consensus versus econometric
260 _c2006
490 0 _aJournal of Property Investment and Finance
_v24(5) 2006, 386-399(14)
520 _aAn examination of the accuracy of various types of property forecasts, focusing on an evaluation of the IPF Consensus Forecast Survey. The evaluation of such forecasts is discussed in general terms, and the IPF forecasts are then compared with forecasts based on econometric models (real time forecasts). The author concludes that for rents, over a one year forecast horizon, the IPF consensus forecasts outperform the other models examined. However, for total return forecasts and where the forecast horizon lengthens to two years, regression models and a combination of the statistical models are more accurate than the consensus forecast.
590 _aIKA210806
651 4 _aUnited Kingdom
_y
690 _aPROPERTY-PROPERTY FINANCE AND INVESTMENT-PROPERTY INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT
942 _n0
999 _c77603
_d77603