Agreement and accuracy in consensus forecasts of the UK commercial property market
Language: English Series: Journal of Property Research ; 25(1) March 2008, 1-22(22)Publication details: 2008Subject(s): Summary: Investigates the nature, extent and patterns of disagreement and uncertainty in the forecasts of UK property investors and their advisers. Analyses the Investment Property Forum's consensus forecasts from 1999-2004. Finds that property forecasting organisations tend to exhibit the characteristics of a consensus, potentially indicating a herding bias, and that difficulties forecasting yield shifts area key source of uncertainty. Suggests that there are inefficiencies in property market forecasts.| Item type | Current library | Call number | Copy number | Status | Barcode | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Journal article | London Journal article | L146151 (Browse shelf(Opens below)) | 1 | Available | 146151-1001 |
Investigates the nature, extent and patterns of disagreement and uncertainty in the forecasts of UK property investors and their advisers. Analyses the Investment Property Forum's consensus forecasts from 1999-2004. Finds that property forecasting organisations tend to exhibit the characteristics of a consensus, potentially indicating a herding bias, and that difficulties forecasting yield shifts area key source of uncertainty. Suggests that there are inefficiencies in property market forecasts.